Q2 2022 Market Commentary

Global Market Commentary: First Quarter 2022

Markets Have Terrible Second Quarter

Global equity markets had an awful second quarter, and when the final Wall Street bell weakly tolled on June 30th, all major global equity markets were in the red, leading to overall market declines not seen in decades.

To underscore how bad it has been so far in 2022, consider that the S&P 500 recorded its worst first six months in 52 years, and the DJIA recorded its worst first six months since 1962.

For the second quarter of 2022:

The DJIA dropped 11.2%;
The S&P 500 lost 16.7%;
NASDAQ plummeted 22.7%; and
The Russell 2000 declined 18.4%.

The themes that drove market performance in the second quarter were the same worries that drove markets in the first quarter and towards the end of last year. And the two most dominant themes continue to be inflation and the Fed – with the former rising to 40-year highs and the latter causing Wall Street to worry that the course of rising rates would lead to a recession.

The other themes were plummeting consumer confidence, rising food and gas prices, negative GDP numbers, declining manufacturing, a cooling-off of the housing market, not-so-wonderful corporate earnings, continued supply-chain bottlenecks, and a lot of social unrest here at home.

Further, we saw that:

Volatility, as measured by the VIX, trended up significantly this quarter, beginning around 19 and ending the month just south of 29.
West Texas Intermediate crude trended up slightly for the quarter, starting at just under $100/barrel and ending at over $105. For perspective, WTI started 2022 at about $75/barrel.

Market Performance Around the World

Investors were unhappy with the quarterly performance around the world, as all 36 developed markets tracked by MSCI were negative for the second quarter of 2022 – and all of them saw negative returns in the double digits. And for the 40 developing markets tracked by MSCI, 39 of them were negative, with many losing more than a quarter of their value.

*Source: MSCI. Past performance cannot guarantee future results*

This Bear Seems Especially Angry

U.S. equity markets turned in a terrible second quarter to add to a not-so-great first quarter, pushing the major equity markets to levels not seen in a long time. And while many are suggesting that there is more pain to come from this bear, plenty of others suggest that the worst is behind us. But we of course, won’t know for sure for another six months.

For the YTD through the end of June:

The DJIA is down 15.9%;
The S&P 500 is down 21.0%;
NASDAQ is down 30.3%; and
The Russell 2000 is down 24.8%.

Sector Performance Rotated in Q22022

The overall trend for sector performance for the second quarter and the YTD was ugly, as all 11 S&P 500 sectors dropped for the second quarter, and only the Energy sector was positive YTD. As if those numbers weren’t bad enough, the performance leaders and laggards rotated throughout the quarter, and the ranges are substantial.

Here are the sector returns for the first two quarters of 2022:

Reviewing the sector returns for just the second quarter of 2022 and the first six months of the year, we saw that:

All sectors were painted red for the second quarter, and only the Energy sector is green YTD;
7 of the 11 sectors saw double-digit declines in the second quarter, and those same 7 saw double-digit declines YTD too;
The defensive sectors (Utilities and Consumer Staples) turned in a relatively decent quarter and have held up relatively ok YTD;
The interest-rate sensitive sectors (Information Technology and Financials specifically) struggled as the Fed raised rates; and
The differences between the best (-5%) performing and worst (-29%) performing sectors in the first quarter were big.

The Fed, The Fed, The Fed

The Federal Reserve voted to increase the fed funds by an amount not seen in almost 30 years. From the Federal Reserve press release dated June 15, 2022:

“Overall economic activity appears to have picked up after edging down in the first quarter. Job gains have been robust in recent months, and the unemployment rate has remained low. Inflation remains elevated, reflecting supply and demand imbalances related to the pandemic, higher energy prices, and broader price pressures.

The invasion of Ukraine by Russia is causing tremendous human and economic hardship. The invasion and related events are creating additional upward pressure on inflation and are weighing on global economic activity. In addition, COVID-related lockdowns in China are likely to exacerbate supply chain disruptions. The Committee is highly attentive to inflation risks.

The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. In support of these goals, the Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to 1.5% - 1.75% and anticipates that ongoing increases in the target range will be appropriate. In addition, the Committee will continue reducing its holdings of Treasury securities, agency debt, and agency mortgage-backed securities, as described in the Plans for Reducing the Size of the Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet that was issued in May. The Committee is strongly committed to returning inflation to its 2 percent objective.”

Like the previous hike earlier this year, this rate hike was one of the most predictable and predicted rate movements the markets have ever seen. However, the magnitude of the rate hike was not predicted.

“Clearly, today’s 75 basis point increase is an unusually large one, and I do not expect moves of this size to be common,” said Fed Chair Jerome Powell. And Powell also said that decisions will be made “meeting by meeting.”

Interestingly, as of the day after the Fed’s historic announcement, Wall Street assigned a probability of more than 80% that the Fed would raise rates by another 75 basis points at their next meeting at the end of July. And that probability has held steady through the end of June too.

GDP Slumps

As the quarter wound down, the Bureau of Economic Analysis released its 3rd estimate of 1st quarter GDP and reported that real gross domestic product decreased at an annual rate of 1.6%. Analysis. In the fourth quarter of 2021, real GDP increased 6.9%.

This 3rd estimate was notable in that the 2nd estimate issued last month reported that GDP declined 1.5%.

U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Seasonally adjusted at annual rates.

“The update primarily reflects a downward revision to personal consumption expenditures (PCE) that was partly offset by an upward revision to private inventory investment (refer to "Updates to GDP").

The decrease in real GDP reflected decreases in exports, federal government spending, private inventory investment, and state and local government spending, while imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased. Nonresidential fixed investment, PCE, and residential fixed investment increased.”

Housing Cools Off

The National Association of Realtors announced that existing-home sales retreated for the fourth consecutive month in May. Month-over-month sales declined in three out of four major U.S. regions, while year-over-year sales slipped in all four regions.

From the release:

Total existing-home sales (completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums, and co-ops) fell 3.4% from April.
Year-over-year sales receded by 8.6%.

"Home sales have essentially returned to the levels seen in 2019 – prior to the pandemic – after two years of gangbuster performance. Also, the market movements of single-family and condominium sales are nearly equal, possibly implying that the preference towards suburban living over city life that had been present over the past two years is fading with a return to pre-pandemic conditions."

Total housing inventory registered at the end of May increased by 12.6% from April but dropped 4.1% from the previous year.
Unsold inventory sits at a 2.6-month supply at the current sales pace, up from 2.2 months in April and 2.5 months in May 2021.

"Further sales declines should be expected in the upcoming months given housing affordability challenges from the sharp rise in mortgage rates this year. Nonetheless, homes priced appropriately are selling quickly, and inventory levels still need to rise substantially – almost doubling – to cool home price appreciation and provide more options for home buyers."

The median existing-home price for all housing types in May was $407,600, up 14.8% from May 2021, as prices increased in all regions.
This marks 123 consecutive months of year-over-year increases, the longest-running streak on record.

Further:

Properties typically remained on the market for 16 days in May, down from 17 days in April and 17 days in May 2021.
Eighty-eight percent of homes sold in May 2022 were on the market for less than a month.

The largest year-over-year median list price growth occurred in Miami (+45.9%), Nashville (+32.5%), and Orlando (+32.4%). Austin reported the highest growth in the share of homes that had their prices reduced compared to last year (+14.7 percentage points), followed by Las Vegas (+12.3 percentage points) and Phoenix (+11.6 percentage points).

Regional Breakdown

Existing-home sales in the Northeast climbed 1.5% but fell 9.3% from May 2021. The median price in the Northeast was $409,700, a 6.7% rise from one year ago.
Existing-home sales in the Midwest dropped 5.3% from the previous month and also fell 7.5% from May 2021. The median price in the Midwest was $294,500, up 9.5% from one year before.
Existing-home sales in the South declined 2.8% in May and fell 8.4% from the previous year. The median price in the South was $375,000, a 20.6% jump from one year ago. For the 9th consecutive month, the South recorded the highest pace of price appreciation relative to the other three regions.
Existing-home sales in the West slid 5.3% in May and dropped 10.0% from this time last year. The median price in the West was $633,800, an increase of 13.3% from May 2021.

Manufacturing Cools Off

S&P Global reported that we saw “the weakest upturn in US private sector output since January’s Omicron-induced slowdown in June. The rise in activity was the second-softest since July 2020, with slower service sector output growth accompanied by the first contraction in manufacturing production in two years.

The headline Flash US PMI Composite Output Index registered 51.2 in June, down from 53.6 in May. The decline in the index reading signaled further easing in the business activity expansion rate to a pace notably slower than March’s recent peak. Although service providers continued to indicate a rise in output, it was the weakest increase in five months.
Manufacturers fared worse, with factory production slipping into decline as the respective seasonally adjusted index fell to a degree only exceeded twice in the 15-year history of the survey, at the height of the initial pandemic lockdowns in 2020 and the height of the global financial crisis in 2008.
Weaker demand conditions, often linked to the rising cost of living and falling confidence, led to the first contraction in new orders since July 2020. Decreases in new sales for goods and services in June were the first recorded since May and July 2020, respectively.
Similarly, new export orders contracted at the steepest pace since June 2020 as foreign customers paused or reduced new order placements due to inflation and supply chain disruptions.
Inflationary pressures remained marked in June, as input costs and output charges rose substantially again. Although the pace of input price inflation eased to the slowest for five months, it was sharper than any seen before April 2021. Alongside food, fuel, transportation, and material price hikes, firms often mentioned that wages had increased to entice workers to stay, which added pressure to operating expenses.

Finally, business confidence slumped to one of the greatest extents seen since comparable data were available in 2012, down to the lowest since September 2020. Manufacturers and service providers were far less upbeat regarding the outlook for output over the coming year than in May, principally amid inflationary concerns and the further impacts on customer spending as well as tightening financial conditions.

Consumer Sentiment Hits Record Low

The University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index for June came in 14.4% below May for the lowest reading on record.

“Consumers across income, age, education, geographic region, political affiliation, stockholding, and homeownership status all posted large declines. About 79% of consumers expected bad times in the year ahead for business conditions, the highest since 2009. Inflation continued to be of paramount concern to consumers; 47% of consumers blamed inflation for eroding their living standards, just one point shy of the all-time high last reached during the Great Recession.”

Orders for Durable Goods Up

Four days before the end of the quarter, the U.S. Census Bureau announced the May advance report on durable goods manufacturers’ shipments, inventories, and orders:

New Orders

New orders for manufactured durable goods in May increased by $1.9 billion or 0.7%.
Up seven of the last eight months, this increase followed a 0.4% April increase.
Excluding transportation, new orders increased by 0.7%.
Excluding defense, new orders increased by 0.6%.
Transportation equipment increased by $0.7 billion or 0.8% for two consecutive months to $87.6 billion.

Shipments

In May, up twelve of the last thirteen months, shipment of manufactured durable goods increased by $3.6 billion or 1.3% to $268.4 billion.
This followed a 0.3% April increase.
Up seven of the last eight months, transportation equipment led the increase, $1.7 billion or 2.1% to $84.7 billion.

Unfilled Orders

Unfilled orders for manufactured durable goods in May, up twenty-one consecutive months, increased $3.7 billion or 0.3% to $1,109.8 billion.
This followed a 0.5% April increase.
Up fifteen of the last sixteen months, transportation equipment led the increase, $2.9 billion or 0.5% to $639.8 billion.

Inventories

Inventories of manufactured durable goods in May, up sixteen consecutive months, increased $2.7 billion or 0.6% to $482.7 billion.
This followed a 0.9% April increase.
Up nineteen consecutive months, Machinery led the increase, $1.0 billion or 1.2% to $82.3 billion.

Capital Goods

Non-defense new orders for capital goods in May increased by $0.4 billion or 0.5%.
Shipments increased by $1.3 billion or 1.6%.
Unfilled orders increased by $3.9 billion or 0.6%.
Inventories increased by $0.6 billion or 0.3%.
In May, defense orders for capital goods increased by $0.3 billion or 2.6%.
Shipments increased by $0.3 billion or 2.5%.
Unfilled orders decreased by $0.2 billion or 0.1%.
Inventories increased by $0.1 billion or 0.3%.

Sources: bea.gov; census.gov; nar.realtor; umich.edu; spglobal.com; msci.com; fidelity.com; nasdaq.com; wsj.com; morningstar.com

Ivan HavrylyanJuly 19, 2022

The Fed Makes The Biggest Rate Hike in 28 Years

From the Federal Reserve press release dated June 15, 2022:

The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. In support of these goals, the Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to 1-1/2 to 1-3/4 percent and anticipates that ongoing increases in the target range will be appropriate. In addition, the Committee will continue reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities, as described in the Plans for Reducing the Size of the Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet that were issued in May. The Committee is strongly committed to returning inflation to its 2 percent objective.”

No One Was Surprised

This rate hike –like the previous hike earlier this year–was one of the most predictable and predicted rate movements the markets have ever seen. What was not predicted until recently, however, was the magnitude of the rate hike. Yet while the markets and traders were expecting this hike, the announcement did contribute to the DJIA, NASDAQ, and the S&P 500 all rallying by more than 1%. But within a few hours after markets closed, the futures market suggested that those gains would be wiped out the following day.

Keep in mind that’s only one trading day and one futures “night”–long-term investors should think about the risk that the Fed continues moving rates higher and faster than expected throughout 2022 because then we could see some longer-term challenges for the stock market and consumers. And higher rates are all but certain to happen for the remainder of the year. The magnitude, however, depends on a number of factors. “Clearly, today’s 75 basis point increase is an unusually large one, and I do not expect moves of this size to be common,” said Fed Chair Jerome Powell. And Powell also said that decisions will be made “meeting by meeting.”

Interestingly, as of the day after the Fed’s historic announcement, Wall Street assigned a probability of more than 80% that the Fed would raise rates by another 75 basis points at their next meeting at the end of July. So, will there be implications for this announcement? Sure. But enough to make most investors change allocations or courses of action? Maybe. Maybe not.

Reason to Change

The most important tool available to the Fed is its ability to set the federal funds rate, or the prime interest rate. This is the interest paid by banks to borrow money from the Federal Reserve Bank. Interest is, basically, the cost to the banks of borrowing someone else’s money. The banks will pass on this cost to their own borrowers.

Increasing the federal funds rate reduces the supply of money by making it more expensive to obtain. Reducing the amount of money in circulation, by decreasing consumer and business spending, helps to reduce inflation.

Effects on Consumers and Businesses

Any increased expense for banks to borrow money has a ripple effect, which influences both individuals and businesses in their costs and plans.

Banks increase the rates that they charge to individuals to borrow money, through increases in credit card and mortgage interest rates. As a result, consumers have less money to spend and must face the effect of what they want to purchase and when to do so. In other words, mortgage rates are trending up and credit card interest rates are too. The same is true with auto loans.
Because consumers will have less disposable income (in theory), businesses must consider the effects on their revenues and profits. Businesses also face the effect of the greater expenses of borrowing money. As the banks make borrowing more expensive for businesses, companies are likely to reduce their spending. Less business spending and capital investment can slow the growth of the economy, decreasing business profits.

These broad interactions can play out in numerous ways.

Effects on the Markets

This one is a bit trickier because intuitively stock prices should decrease when investors see companies reduce growth spending or make less profit. The reality, however, is that the Fed typically won’t raise rates unless they deem the economy healthy enough to withstand what should –at least in textbooks –slow the economy. But the reality is that stocks often do well in the year following an initial rate hike. But after multiple and large rate hikes in the same year? Much tougher to predict. If the stock market declines, investors tend to view the risk of stock investments as outweighing the rewards and they will often move toward the safer bonds and Treasury bills. As a result, bond interest rates will rise, and investors will likely earn more from bonds. Obviously, many factors affect activity in various parts of the economy. A change in interest rates, although important, is just one of those factors. Give me a call if you have questions or want to discuss additional repercussions that this Fedrate increase will likely have. ways.

Ivan HavrylyanJuly 7, 2022

Q1 2022 Market Commentary

Global Market Commentary: First Quarter 2022

Markets Have Worst Quarter Since 1Q2020

Global equity markets had a volatile first quarter and when the final Wall Street bell rang on March 31st, global equity markets were in the red, as March was not enough to make up for the dismal returns from January and February.

But maybe the worst news was that the bond market suffered its worst quarter since 1980.

For the first quarter of 2022:

The DJIA ended Q1 with a loss of 5.2%;
The S&P 500 ended Q1 with a loss of 5.5%;
NASDAQ ended Q1 with a loss of 10.2%; and
The Russell 2000 ended Q1 with a loss of 8.9%.

The themes that drove market performance in the first quarter were the same themes that drove markets toward the end of last year. But in late February and throughout all of March, Wall Street dealt with the invasion of Ukraine by Russia and its impact on global markets.

Volatility and oil prices spiked this quarter, driven by a host of issues, including Russia’s invasion, rising inflation, supply chain issues and the Federal Reserve’s timing and size of rate hikes (we saw a 25 basis point hike in March).

The other themes were volatile consumer confidence, continued red-hot housing prices, high GDP growth numbers and corporate earnings that came in better than expected.

Further, we saw that:

Volatility, as measured by the VIX, trended up most of the month, more than doubling to a high of 36 on March 7th, before retreating to come to rest marginally higher than where it began the month.
West Texas Intermediate crude made a big move in the first quarter, starting at $75/barrel and ending the quarter at over $100. For perspective, WTI started 2021 at $48/barrel.

Market Performance Around the World

Investors were unhappy with the quarterly performance around the world, as 35 of the 36 developed markets tracked by MSCI were negative for the first quarter of 2022, with only MSCI Pacific ex-Japan advancing. And for the 40 developing markets tracked by MSCI, 26 of them were negative, with many posting staggering losses, including MSCI Eastern Europe that dropped almost 60%.

March Could Not Lift the Entire Quarter

U.S. equity markets reversed the negative course of the quarter’s first two months and ended March in positive territory. But it was still not enough to overcome the biggest two-month drop (January and February) since March 2020 as markets ended the 1st quarter of 2022 in the red - the first since the 1st quarter of 2020.

For the month of March:

The DJIA was up 4.2%;
The S&P 500 was up 5.2%;
NASDAQ was up 5.1%; and
The Russell 2000 was up 3.1%.

Sector Performance Rotated in Q12022

The overall trend for sector performance for all 3 months so far in 2022 was mixed and the performance leaders and laggards rotated throughout, giving investors a few mini sector rotations each month and during the quarter.

Here are the sector returns for the shorter time periods:

Reviewing the sector returns for just the first quarter of 2022, we saw that:

9 of the 11 sectors were painted red for the first quarter, which is in stark comparison to the previous quarter;
The Energy sector turned in an astonishing quarter, driven by a massive jump in oil prices;
The defensive Utilities sector turned in a good quarter;
The interest-rate sensitive sectors (Information Technology and Financials specifically) struggled as the Fed raised rates by 25 bps; and
The differences between the best (+38%) performing and worst (-13%) performing sectors in the first quarter widened.

The Fed Increases Rates

The dominant theme this month (besides Russia/Ukraine) revolved around whether the Fed might need to raise short-term interest rates more quickly and more often, eating into future profits, especially within the high-flying tech names.

Then at the March meeting, the Federal Reserve moved its fed funds target rate from near zero to a range of 0.25% to 0.50%. It was the first rate hike since 2018.

The Federal Funds Rate – 10 Year Chart

But the Fed also released the so-called “dot plot,” which shows where individual Fed officials expect interest rates to be.

And given the surge in inflation numbers – from the perspectives of both consumers (CPI) and producers (PPI), the majority now expect seven hikes in 2022, four in 2023 and none for 2024. (In other words, there could be a rate hike at every remaining Fed meeting this year and at half the meetings next year.)

If this comes true, it would be higher than the Fed’s estimate of the long-run neutral rate, (which is 2%), and would suggest a more hawkish policy that could be more restrictive to growth.

Interestingly enough, when the Fed raised rates 25 basis points and released its “dot plot,” stocks rallied, suggesting that Wall Street appreciates the path that has been outlined.

But The Fed Was Not Unanimous

By its own metrics, however, it was becoming increasingly difficult for the Fed to forestall a rate increase at least in the range of 0.25%.

In fact, buried in a footnote of the Fed’s statement was this nugget:

“Voting against this action was James Bullard, who preferred at this meeting to raise the target range for the federal funds rate by 0.5 percentage points to 1/2 to 3/4 percent.”

Bond Markets Struggle

At the end of the quarter, there was a lot of chatter because the 2-year Treasury yield and the 10-year Treasury yield inverted, leading many to suggest a recession is on the way in the next 12 months.

10YR-2YR Treasury curve and 10YR-3MTH Treasury curve (%)

But lost in much of the quarter-end summaries was this ominous sign: the bond market suffered its worst quarter since 1980. Specifically, the Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index had its worst quarter since late 1980.

Want more bad bond news? Well,

The first quarter of 2022 was the third-worst quarter since the index’s inception.
March was the worst monthly performance for the index since July 2003.

GDP UP 6.9% Last Quarter

Two days before the quarter ended, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that real gross domestic product increased at an annual rate of 6.9% in the fourth quarter of 2021.

In the third quarter, real GDP increased 2.3 percent.

PCE Price Index Up 6.4% Over 12 Months

The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported a lot of information on the last day of the quarter, including that:

Personal income increased $101.5 billion (0.5%) in February
Disposable personal income increased by $76.1 billion (0.4%)
Personal consumption expenditures increased $34.9 billion (0.2%)

Further:

Real DPI decreased 0.2% in February and Real PCE decreased 0.4%
Goods decreased 2.1%
Services increased 0.6%
The PCE price index increased 0.6%
Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 0.4%

The PCE price index for February increased 6.4% from one year ago, reflecting increases in both goods and services.

Energy prices increased 25.7%
Food prices increased 8.0%
Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index for February increased 5.4% from one year ago

Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index, Ex-Food and Energy

Change from Month One Year Ago

February 2022 5.4%

January 2022 5.2%

December 2021 4.9%

November 2021 4.7%

Unemployment is Very Low

Unemployment (3.8%) is now nearly at record lows. In addition, the number of job openings exceeds the number of unemployed by the widest margin in the past 20 years.

Record job openings exceed the number of unemployed (numbers in millions)

This paradigm suggests that we will be in a tight labor market for a while. And the jobs growth and unemployment numbers reported at the end of the quarter reinforce that notion.

New Home Sales Down

The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development jointly announced the following new residential sales statistics for February 2022.

New Home Sales

Sales of new single‐family houses in February 2022 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 772,000
This is 2.0% below the January rate of 788,000
This is 6.2% below the February 2021 estimate of 823,000

Sales Price, Inventory, and Months’ Supply

The median sales price of new houses sold in February 2022 was $400,600
The average sales price was $511,000
The seasonally‐adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of February was 407,000
This represents a supply of 6.3 months at the current sales rate

Consumer Confidence is Up

The Conference Board announced that “the Consumer Confidence Index increased slightly in March, after a decrease in February. The Index now stands at 107.2 (1985=100), up from 105.7 in February. The Present Situation Index – based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions—improved to 153.0 from 143.0 last month. However, the Expectations Index – based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions— declined to 76.6 from 80.8.”

Present Situation
Consumers’ appraisal of current business conditions improved in March.

19.6% of consumers said business conditions
were “good,” up from 17.6%.
22.1% of consumers said business conditions were “bad,” down from 25.1%.

Consumers’ assessment of the labor market also improved.

57.2% of consumers said jobs were “plentiful,” up from 53.5%, a new historical high.
9.8% of consumers said jobs are “hard to get,” down from 12.0%.

Expectations Six Months Hence

Consumers’ optimism about the short-term business conditions outlook declined in March.

18.7% of consumers expect business conditions will improve, down from 21.3%.
23.8% expect business conditions to worsen, up from 19.9%.

Consumers were mixed about the short-term labor market outlook.

17.4% of consumers expect more jobs to be available in the months ahead, down from 19.4%.
Conversely, 17.7% anticipate fewer jobs, down from 19.6%.

Consumers were also mixed about their short-term financial prospects.

14.9% of consumers expect their incomes to increase, up from 14.7%.
13.7% expect their incomes will decrease, up from 13.0%.

Sources: conference-board.org; bea.gov; census.gov; msci.com; fidelity.com; nasdaq.com; wsj.com; morningstar.com; bea.gov

Ivan HavrylyanApril 15, 2022market commentary, current market conditions