Markets Have Good First Quarter

Global equity markets had a good first quarter – especially the tech names. And interestingly, in the fourth quarter of 2022, global equity markets also had a pretty good quarter – except for the tech names.

When the final Wall Street bell of the quarter rang out, NASDAQ had turned in its best quarterly gain since 2020, and the other three major U.S. equity indices turned in solid results too.

For the first quarter of 2023:

• The DJIA advanced by 0.5%;

• The S&P 500 gained 6.9%;

• NASDAQ jumped 16.8%; and

• The Russell 2000 added 2.3%.

The themes that drove market performance in the first quarter centered around inflation, the Fed, and the labor market, as recent inflation numbers hinted at a potential decline. In contrast, labor market numbers suggested that the Fed could continue its pace of rate hikes further into the year.

This quarter's other big theme was a new banking crisis – as Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank failed – with SVB being the largest bank failure since 2008. That helped push gold close to its record high.

And as a surprise to many, cryptocurrencies extended their recovery from 2022's disaster, with Bitcoin leaping more than 50%.

Further, we saw that:

• Volatility, as measured by the VIX, trended down this quarter, beginning just north of 21 and ending just shy of 19, although there was a significant spike in mid-March.

• West Texas Intermediate crude also trended down for the quarter, starting at just over $80/barrel and ending at just over $75, with a low of $67/barrel in mid-March.

Market Performance Around the World

Investors were pleased with the quarterly performance worldwide, as all 36 developed markets tracked by MSCI were positive for the first quarter of 2023 – that’s the second quarter in a row that saw all 36 MSCI developed market indices green. And for the 40 developing markets tracked by MSCI, only 28 of those were positive.

Source: MSCI. Past performance cannot guarantee future results

Sector Performance Rotated in Q12023

The overall sector performance for the first quarter of 2023 was ok, as 4 of the 11 sectors lost ground. But of the seven sectors that gained ground, the gains were significant. Compare that to the overall trend for the fourth quarter, which was good, as 9 of the 11 sectors advanced, with six advancing by double-digits, and going back to the third quarter of last year, which was ugly, as 10 of the 11 S&P 500 sectors dropped with only Consumer Discretionary staying positive.

Finally, as happened in each quarter last year, the performance leaders and laggards rotated throughout the quarter, and the ranges were substantial.

Here are the sector returns for the first quarter of 2023 and the fourth quarter of 2022:

Source: FMR

Reviewing the sector returns for just the first quarter of 2023, we saw that:

• Only 7 of the 11 sectors were painted green, although the Information Technology and Consumer Discretionary sectors made giant leaps;

• The defensive sectors (think Utilities and Health Care) struggled during the quarter

• Financials – not surprisingly – was the worst performer, driven down by two significant bank failures; and

• The difference between the best (+21%) performing and worst (-6%) performing sectors in the first quarter was massive.

Two Interesting Rallies This Quarter

Volatility in the Treasury Market

The Fed Raises Rates Again

One of the most talked about events this quarter was the Federal Reserve’s policy meetings, and as expected, the Fed raised official short-term rates by 25 basis points in late March. Further, the “dot plot” pointed to hopes that the Fed might stop raising rates after one final one in May. Most interesting is that the fed funds futures markets ended the week pricing in a 98.2% chance that rates would end the year lower – with a whopping 95% chance that cuts would start this summer.

Source: CME Fed Watch

For perspective, it was almost exactly one year ago, on March 16, 2022, that the Federal Open Market Committee enacted the first of what would become nine consecutive interest rate increases.

GDP Up 2.6% in 4th Quarter

As the quarter ended, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that the real gross domestic product increased at an annual rate of 2.6% in the fourth quarter of 2022. In the third quarter, real GDP increased by 3.2%.

This is the “third” GDP estimate released, and it is based on more complete source data than was available for the "second" estimate issued last month. In the second estimate, the increase in real GDP was 2.7%. The revision primarily reflected downward revisions to exports and consumer spending. Imports, a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, were revised down.

U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Seasonally adjusted annual rates.

“The increase in real GDP primarily reflected increases in private inventory investment, consumer spending, nonresidential fixed investment, federal government spending, and state and local government spending that were partly offset by decreases in residential fixed investment and exports. Imports decreased.

Consumer Sentiment Drops

“Consumer sentiment fell for the first time in four months, dropping about 8% below February but remaining 4% above a year ago. This month’s turmoil in the banking sector had limited impact on consumer sentiment, which was already exhibiting downward momentum prior to the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank. Overall, our data revealed multiple signs that consumers increasingly expect a recession ahead. While sentiment fell across all demographic groups, the declines were sharpest for lower-income, less- educated, and younger consumers, as well as consumers with the top tercile of stock holdings. All five index components declined this month, led by a notably sharp weakening in one-year business conditions.

Year-ahead inflation expectations receded from 4.1% in February to 3.6%, the lowest reading since April 2021, but remained well above the 2.3-3.0% range seen in the two years before the pandemic. Long-run inflation expectations came in at 2.9% for the fourth consecutive month and stayed within the narrow 2.9- 3.1% range for 19 of the last 20 months.

But Consumer Confidence is Up

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index increased slightly in March to 104.2 (1985=100), up from 103.4 in February.

Further:

• The Present Situation Index—based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions—decreased to 151.1 (1985=100) from 153.0 last month.

• The Expectations Index—based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions— ticked up to 73.0 (1985=100) from 70.4 in February (a slight upward revision).

• However, for 12 of the last 13 months—since February 2022—the Expectations Index has been below 80, which often signals a recession within the next year. “Driven by an uptick in expectations, consumer confidence improved somewhat in March but remains below the average level seen in 2022 (104.5).

“The gain reflects an improved outlook for consumers under 55 years of age and for households earning $50,000 and over. While consumers feel a bit more confident about what’s ahead, they are slightly less optimistic about the current landscape. The share of consumers saying jobs are ‘plentiful’ fell, while the share of those saying jobs are ‘not so plentiful’ rose.

The latest results also reveal that their inflation expectations over the next 12 months remain elevated – at 6.3 percent. Overall purchasing plans for appliances continued to soften while automobile purchases saw a slight increase.”

Sources: The Conference Board; NBER

CPI Records Smaller Increase, But Food Index is Up 9.5% Over the Last Year

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers rose 0.4% in February after increasing 0.5% in January. Over the last 12 months, the all-items index increased by 6.0% before seasonal adjustment.

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Specifically:

• The index for shelter was the largest contributor to the monthly all-items increase, accounting for over 70% of the increase, with the indexes for food, recreation, and household furnishings and operations also contributing.

• The food index increased 0.4% over the month, with the food at home index rising 0.3%.

• The energy index decreased 0.6% over the month as the natural gas and fuel oil indexes declined.

• Categories that increased in February include shelter, recreation, household furnishings and operations, and airline fares.

• The index for used cars and trucks and the index for medical care were among those that decreased over the month.

Inflation Over the Past 12-Months

The all-items index increased 6.0% for the 12 months ending February; this was the smallest 12-month increase since the period ending September 2021.

• All items less food and energy index rose 5.5% over the last 12 months, its smallest 12-month increase since December 2021.

• The energy index increased 5.2% for the 12 months ending February.

• The food index increased by 9.5% over the last year.

Food Index

• The food index increased 0.4% in February, and the food at home index rose 0.3% over the month. Five major grocery store food group indexes increased over the month. The index for nonalcoholic beverages increased by 1.0% in February, after a 0.4% increase the previous month.

• The indexes for other food at home and for cereals and bakery products each rose 0.3% over the month. The index for fruits and vegetables increased by 0.2% in February, and the index for dairy and related products rose by 0.1%.

• In contrast, the meats, poultry, fish, and eggs index fell 0.1 percent over the month, the first decrease in that index since December 2021. The index for eggs fell 6.7% in February following sharp increases in recent months.

Existing Home Sales Jump in February

The National Association of Realtors reported that “existing-home sales reversed a 12-month slide in February, registering the largest monthly percentage increase since July 2020. Month-over-month sales rose in all four major U.S. regions. All regions posted year-over-year declines.

• Total existing-home sales completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums, and co-ops – vaulted 14.5% from January to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.58 million in February.

• Year-over-year, sales fell 22.6% (down from 5.92 million in February 2022).

• The total housing inventory registered at the end of February was 980,000 units, identical to January and up 15.3% from one year ago (850,000).

• Unsold inventory sits at a 2.6-month supply at the current sales pace, down 10.3% from January but up from 1.7 months in February 2022.”

Prices Slide After 131 Months of Gains

• “The median existing-home price for all housing types in January was $363,000, a decline of 0.2% from February 2022 ($363,700), as prices climbed in the Midwest and South yet waned in the Northeast and West.

• This ends a streak of 131 consecutive months of year-over-year increases, the longest on record.

• Properties typically remained on the market for 34 days in February, up from 33 days in January and 18 days in February 2022.

• Fifty-seven percent of homes sold in February were on the market for less than a month.

• First-time buyers were responsible for 27% of sales in February, down from 31% in January and 29% in February 2022.

• All-cash sales accounted for 28% of transactions in February, down from 29% in January but up from 25% in February 2022.

• Distressed sales – foreclosures and short sales – represented 2% of sales in February, nearly identical to last month and one year ago.

Regional Breakdown

• Existing-home sales in the Northeast improved by 4.0%, down 25.7% from February 2022. The median price in the Northeast was $366,100, down 4.5% from the previous year.

• In the Midwest, existing-home sales grew 13.5%, declining 18.7% from one year ago. The median price in the Midwest was $261,200, up 5.0% from February 2022.

• Existing-home sales in the South rebounded 15.9% in February, a 21.3% decrease from the prior year. The median price in the South was $342,000, an increase of 2.7% from one year ago.

• In the West, existing-home sales rocketed 19.4% in February, down 28.3% from the previous year. The median price in the West was $541,100, down 5.6% from February 2022.”

Durable Goods Orders Drop Again

The U.S. Census Bureau announced the February advance report on durable goods manufacturers’ shipments, inventories, and orders:

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, and Orders, March 24, 2023.

New Orders

• New orders for manufactured durable goods in February, down three of the last four months, decreased $2.6 billion or 1.0% to $268.4 billion.

• This followed a 5.0% January decrease.

• Excluding transportation, new orders were virtually unchanged.

• Excluding defense, new orders decreased by 0.5%.

• Also down three of the last four months, transportation equipment drove the decrease, $2.6 billion or 2.8% to $89.4 billion.

Shipments

• In February, the shipment of manufactured durable goods in two consecutive months decreased by $1.5 billion or 0.6% to $274.8 billion.

• This followed a 0.4% January decrease.

• Also down two consecutive months, transportation equipment led the decrease, $1.3 billion or 1.4% to $90.1 billion.

Unfilled Orders

• Unfilled orders for manufactured durable goods in February, down two consecutive months, decreased $1.2 billion or 0.1% to $1,155.4 billion.

• This followed a virtually unchanged January decrease.

• Transportation equipment, down following twenty-one consecutive monthly increases, led the decrease, $0.7 billion or 0.1% to $683.8 billion.

Inventories

• Inventories of manufactured durable goods in February, up twenty-four of the last twenty- five months, increased $0.9 billion or 0.2% to $493.6 billion.

• This followed a 0.2% January decrease.

• Up three of the last four months, transportation equipment led the increase, $0.6 billion or 0.4% to $158.8 billion.

Capital Goods

• Nondefense new orders for capital goods in February decreased $1.0 billion or 1.2% to $82.0 billion.

• Shipments decreased by $0.5 billion or 0.6% to $83.2 billion.

• Unfilled orders decreased by $1.2 billion or 0.2% to $662.6 billion.

• Inventories increased by $0.5 billion or 0.2% to $218.8 billion.

• Defense new orders for capital goods in February decreased $1.2 billion or 7.4% to $14.5 billion.

• Shipments decreased by $0.2 billion or 1.6% to $14.6 billion.

• Unfilled orders decreased by $0.2 billion or 0.1% to $188.9 billion.

• Inventories increased by $0.1 billion or 0.3% to $23.3 billion.

Sources: dol.gov; nar.realtor; umich.edu; census.gov; bea.gov; fidelity.com; msci.com; nasdaq.com; wsj.com; morningstar.com

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The year-end holidays approach and bring lots of things to do. Yet with holiday cheer there are financial plans to make, too.

Consider these financial opportunities before 2022 arrives.

MAKE FINANCIAL GIFTS

As we count our many blessings and share time with our loved ones, we can express our thanks through giving to others. Donate to your favorite charity before year-end.

Generally speaking, the amount of charitable cash contributions taxpayers can deduct on Schedule A as an itemized deduction is limited to a percentage (usually 60%) of the taxpayer's adjusted gross income. But did you know that the IRS has temporarily suspended limits on charitable contributions?

Sure it might change, but as of now, qualified contributions are not subject to this limitation and individuals may deduct qualified contributions of up to 100% of their adjusted gross income.

To qualify, the contribution must be a cash contribution and made to a qualifying organization. Contributions of non–cash property do not qualify for this relief. Taxpayers may still claim non–cash contributions as a deduction, subject to the normal limits.

You can gift assets or cash to your child, any relative, or even a friend, and take advantage of the annual gift tax exclusion. Any individual can gift up to $15,000 this year to as many other individuals as he or she desires a couple may jointly gift up to $30,000. Whether you choose to gift singly or jointly, you've probably got a long way to go before using up the current $11.7 ($23.4 million for couples) lifetime exemption.

Grandparents, aunts, uncles, and parents too can fund 529 college saving plans this way, but it is worth noting that December 31st is the 529 funding deadline.

MAX OUT RETIREMENT PLANS

Most employers offer a 401(k) or 403(b) plan, and you have until December 31st to boost your contribution. This year, the contribution limit on both 401(k) and 403(b) plans is $19,500 for those under 50 (it's going up by $1,000 next year) and $26,000 for those 50 and older. This year, the traditional and Roth individual retirement account contribution limits are $6,000 for those under 50 and $7,000 for those 50 and older.

But be careful because high earners face contribution ceilings based on their adjusted gross income level.

Remember IRA cash-outs. Once you reach age 72 you are required to take annual Required Minimum Distributions (RMDs) from your retirement accounts.

Your first RMD must be taken by April 1st of the year after you turn 72. Subsequent RMDs must be taken by December 31st of each year. If you don't take your RMD, you'll have to pay a penalty of 50% of the RMD amount.

Did you inherit an IRA? If you have and you weren't married to the person who started that IRA, you must take the first RMD from that IRA by December 31st of the year after the death of that original IRA owner. You have to do it whether the account is a traditional or a Roth IRA.

Consider dividing it into multiple inherited IRAs, thus extending the payout schedule for younger inheritors of those assets. Any co–beneficiaries receive distributions per the life expectancy of the oldest beneficiary. If you want to make this move, it must be done by the end of the year that follows the year in which the original IRA owner died.

If your spouse died, then, you should file Form 706 no later than nine months after his or her passing. This notifies the IRS that some or all of a decedent's estate tax exemption is carried over to the surviving spouse.

Business owners' retirement plans. If you have income from self-employment, you can save for the future using a self-directed retirement plan, such as a Simplified Employee Pension (SEP) plan or a one–person 401(k), the so-called Solo (k). You don't have to be exclusively self–employed to set one of these up – you can work full–time for someone else and contribute to one of these while also deferring some of your salary into the retirement plan sponsored by your employer.

Contributions to SEPs and Solo (k) s are tax–deductible. December 31st is the deadline to set one up, and if you meet that deadline, you can make your contributions as late as April 15th next year (or October 15th with a federal extension).

You can contribute up to $58,000 to a SEP and this rises to $61,000 next year.

If you contribute to a 401(k) at work, the sum of your employee salary deferrals plus your Solo (k) contributions can't be greater than the $19,500/$26,000 limits. But even so, you can still pour up to 25% of your net self-employment income into a Solo (k).

IRS INCREASES CONTRIBUTION LIMITS FOR NEXT YEAR

The Internal Revenue Service announced that the amount individuals can contribute to their 401(k) plans in 2022 has increased to $20,500, up from $19,500 for 2021 and 2020.

From the IRS website:

Highlights of Changes for 2022

"The contribution limit for employees who participate in 401(k), 403(b), most 457 plans, and the federal government's Thrift Savings Plan is increased to $20,500, up from $19,500. The income ranges for determining eligibility to make deductible contributions to traditional Individual Retirement Arrangements (IRAs), to contribute to Roth IRAs, and to claim the Saver's Credit all increased for 2022.

Taxpayers can deduct contributions to a traditional IRA if they meet certain conditions. If during the year either the taxpayer or the taxpayer's spouse was covered by a retirement plan at work, the deduction may be reduced, or phased out, until it is eliminated, depending on filing status and income. (If neither the taxpayer nor the spouse is covered by a retirement plan at work, the phase–outs of the deduction do not apply.) Here are the phase–out ranges for 2022:

• For single taxpayers covered by a workplace retirement plan, the phase–out range is increased to $68,000 to $78,000, up from $66,000 to $76,000.

• For married couples filing jointly, if the spouse making the IRA contribution is covered by a workplace retirement plan, the phase–out range is increased to $109,000 to $129,000, up from $105,000 to $125,000.

• For an IRA contributor who is not covered by a workplace retirement plan and is married to someone who is covered, the phase–out range is increased to $204,000 to $214,000, up from $198,000 to $208,000.

• For a married individual filing a separate return who is covered by a workplace retirement plan, the phase–out range is not subject to an annual cost–of–living adjustment and remains $0 to $10,000.

The income phase–out range for taxpayers making contributions to a Roth IRA is increased to $129,000 to $144,000 for singles and heads of household, up from $125,000 to $140,000. For married couples filing jointly, the income phase-out range is increased to $204,000 to $214,000, up from $198,000 to $208,000. The phase–out range for a married individual filing a separate return who makes contributions to a Roth IRA is not subject to an annual cost–of–living adjustment and remains $0 to $10,000.

The income limit for the Saver's Credit (also known as the Retirement Savings Contributions Credit) for low- and moderate–income workers is $68,000 for married couples filing jointly, up from $66,000; $51,000 for heads of household, up from $49,500; and $34,000 for singles and married individuals filing separately, up from $33,000.

The amount individuals can contribute to their SIMPLE retirement accounts is increased to $14,000, up from $13,500.

Key Employee Contribution Limits That Remain Unchanged

The limit on annual contributions to an IRA remains unchanged at $6,000. The IRA catch–up contribution limit for individuals aged 50 and over is not subject to an annual cost–of–living adjustment and remains $1,000.

The catch-up contribution limit for employees aged 50 and over who participate in 401(k), 403(b), most 457 plans, and the federal government's Thrift Savings Plan remains unchanged at $6,500. Therefore, participants in 401(k), 403(b), most 457 plans, and the federal government's Thrift Savings Plan who are 50 and older can contribute up to $27,000, starting in 2022. The catch–up contribution limit for employees aged 50 and over who participate in SIMPLE plans remains unchanged at $3,000."

Are you tired of hearing about taxes?

Me too.

But here we are. Let's dive in.

So, we've got dueling infrastructure bills, plus a big proposed budget with lots of spending (and higher taxes inside).

That's a lot of expensive legislation on the table.

What's going to happen next?

The Democrats and Republicans seem pretty far apart on their respective infrastructure deals, which opens up the possibility that Democrats could go it alone and try to pass a package entirely without Republican support.1

That would be very difficult to accomplish.

It's also possible that both parties could align around a smaller bill and then the Democrats attempt to pass any extras through budget reconciliation.

The bottom line, we don't have enough clarity to know what a final infrastructure deal will look like. Given the political hurdles, the debate might drag on through summer.2

How likely are taxes to go up?

Well, my crystal ball's about as clear as mud right now, but let's break down what we see on the table.

President Biden's $6 trillion proposed budget offers a lot of spending and higher taxes to pay for it.3 None of these tax hikes are a surprise as they are in line with what Biden has promised before.

Wealthy taxpayers are looking at a higher top income tax rate, higher capital gains taxes, and the loss of the step-up basis on inherited assets.

Corporations are also in the line of fire, facing an increase in corporate tax rates, which could affect profitability.

That's currently what's on the table.

However, Biden's desire to raise taxes faces major headwinds (even inside his own party). His proposed budget is very much a wish list and will face challenges getting approved by legislators.4

It's very possible that some (or all) of these proposed tax hikes will get axed during negotiations.

How likely is it that any tax hikes will be retroactive?

One of the big shockers coming out of recent tax news is that the higher capital gains taxes could be made retroactive to April 2021.5

There is a historical precedent for this as it has happened a number of times before.6 However, retroactive tax changes are often for tax decreases.

I think it's very unlikely for an increase to be retroactive. There is too much opposition from both sides of the aisle.

Bottom line, I do think that higher taxes are coming. But I'm not sure that they will be as big or far-reaching as the Biden administration wants.

With so much uncertainty around taxes, now is not a time to panic, but to think carefully and make adjustments where needed.

Please reach out if there's anything specific you need to discuss.

Does it feel like 2021 yet?

The twists and turns so far make it seem like 2020 is dragging into a second season.

As an American, I’m shocked and worried, and I’m wondering how political disagreements turned into excuses for violence.

As a financial professional, I know that the politics, protests, and rioting in DC are just one-factor affecting markets.

I honestly don’t know what will happen over the next few weeks, but I can help you understand how it affects you as an investor.

Why did markets surge the day the Capitol was attacked?

While the world watched the violence in DC with horror, markets quietly rallied to new records the same day.1

That’s weird, right?

Well, not really.

I think it boils down to a few things.

1. Computers and algorithms are dispassionate, executing trades regardless of the larger world.

2. Markets don't always react to short-term ugliness. Instead, they reflect expectations about economic and business growth plus a healthy dose of investor psychology.

3. With elections officially at an end, political uncertainty has dissipated.

Overall, I think investors are looking past the immediate future and hoping that vaccines, increased economic stimulus, and economic growth paint a positive picture of the future.

The Democrats control the White House and Congress. What does that mean for investors?

If you’re like a lot of people, you might think that your party in power is good for markets and your party out of power is bad.

That makes for a stressful experience every four years, right?

Fortunately, that’s not the case at all. Markets are pretty rational with respect to politics and policy.

While businesses and investors generally dislike increased taxes and corporate regulation, the Democrats hold such slim majorities in the House and Senate that it limits their ability to pass many big policy changes.

Also, the Democrats’ immediate agenda is very likely to be focused on fighting the pandemic and passing more stimulus aid, both of which should support stock prices.

Does that mean markets will continue to rally?

No guarantees, unfortunately. With all the frothy market activity and rosy expectations about the future, bad news could knock stocks down a peg or two.

A correction is definitely possible, and some strategists think certain sectors are in a bubble.

The bottom line, expect more volatility.

What comes next?

I wish I could tell you.

I’m optimistic that the light at the end of the tunnel is getting closer and we can start going back to normal.

I’m proud of what scientists and medical professionals have been able to accomplish in such a short amount of time.

I’m grateful for the folks around me.

How about you?

What’s your take? I'm interested to hear your thoughts.

Let me know ivan@otbfinancialplanning.com

CARES Act Benefits For Individuals

The Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security act – the CARES Act – is the largest economic bill in U.S. history and was designed to “provide emergency assistance and health care response for individuals, families, and businesses affected by the 2020 coronavirus pandemic.”

Spanning close to 900 pages, the comprehensive aid package covers a lot, including direct payments to Americans, expanded unemployment insurance, changes to retirement rules and billions of dollars in aid to businesses.

The CARES Act builds upon earlier versions of federal government support and is the third such bill, coming shortly after the “Coronavirus Preparedness and Response Supplemental Appropriations Act” and the “Families First Coronavirus Response Act” were approved.

Here are a few highlights that might be of interest to individuals:

Rebate for Individuals

The bill would provide a $1,200 refundable tax credit for individuals ($2,400/joint). Additionally, taxpayers with children will receive a flat $500 for each child. The rebates would not be counted as taxable income.

The rebate does phase out as follows:

• Starts to phase out at $75,000 for singles and completely gone at $99,000

• Starts to phase out at $150,000 for married joint filers and completely gone at $198,000

• Starts to phase out at $135,000 for a head of household filers

Unemployment Expansion

Unemployment insurance assistance now includes an additional $600 per week payment to each recipient for up to four months plus extend benefits to self-employed workers, independent contractors, and those with limited work history. The government will provide temporary full funding of the first week of regular unemployment for states with no waiting period and extend benefits for an additional 13 weeks through December 31, 2020.

Waiver of 10% Withdrawal Penalty

The 10% penalty for early withdrawals from IRAs and retirement accounts is being waived for 2020, subject to a maximum allowable withdrawal of $100,000.

Withdrawal amounts are taxable over three years, but taxpayers can recontribute the withdrawn funds into their retirement accounts for three years without affecting retirement account caps.

Required Minimum Distributions

For 2020, individuals expected to take Required Minimum Distributions will not be required to withdraw that amount from their IRA or retirement plan.

Coronavirus-Related Distributions

The CARES Act allows for “Coronavirus-related Distributions” which allow participants in IRAs and retirement plans the ability to take a qualifying withdrawal and pay those funds back without tax or interest over a 3-year period. The withdrawal is subject to a $100,000 limit.

There are qualifications for Coronavirus-Related Distributions, however, including:

• Personal, spouse or dependent diagnosis with COVID-19

• Quarantined, furloughed, laid off, or work hours reduced because of COVID-19

• Unable to work due to lack of childcare due to COVID-19

• Own a business that is closed or shortened hours due to COVID-19

• Other factors later specified by the IRS

Retirement Loans

For those unable to meet the Coronavirus-Related Distributions criteria, withdrawals from retirement plans in the form of a loan exists.

Generally speaking, those loans need to be repaid over 5 years and cannot exceed $50,000 or half the vested account value, whichever is less. Now, however, the amount is doubled so that one can take a loan up to $100,000 or half of the vested account value, whichever is less. The loan still needs to be repaid, but payments can be deferred up to 1 year after the loan is taken.

Your Financial Advisor

As with all federal government programs, there are rules, deadlines, and qualifications that can be difficult to decipher. The fact is that while this is by far the largest economic bill in America’s history, it is near impossible for any bill to take into account every unique situation.

So, before you go down a path that might not be in your best interest, set up a CARES Act Benefits Consultation by clicking here or email me at ivan@otbfinancialplanning.com.

This is especially important as the CARES Act is bill number three. And Washington has been talking about bill number four, which will undoubtedly bring more economic relief and changes.

How to Avoid Scams at Tax Time

Here’s what to know and how to protect yourself.

Identity thieves often swipe your bank or credit card account numbers, birth date information or Social Security Number (SSN) to steal from your accounts, open a new and phony account or make illegal purchases. Some 15.4 million consumers were victims of identity theft or fraud last year, according to a new report from Javelin Strategy & Research.

All sorts of nefarious schemers can come after you via the phone or email. Your tax return offers a trove of your personal information, and this time of year scammers also prey on your apprehension about paying taxes.

The Internal Revenue Service recently published its latest list of scam warnings, freely admitting, “It’s true: Tax scams proliferate during the income tax filing season.”  

Among IRS tips:

• Beware of unexpected communication at the start of tax season that claims to come from the IRS.
• Don’t fall for phone and phishing email scams that use the IRS as a lure. The fake messages typically probe you for personal information thieves often pose as the IRS offering a bogus refund or warning you to pay past-due taxes – sometimes, with phone scams, threatening you with immediate arrest if you hang up.
• The IRS sends letters by postal mail and initiates no contact with taxpayers by email to request personal or financial information. This means any e-communication, such as text messages and messages over social media.
• The IRS doesn’t ask for personal identification numbers (PINs), passwords or similar confidential information for your credit card, bank or other accounts.
• If you get an unexpected email, open no attachments and do not click links in the message. Forward the email to phishing@irs.gov. See more about reporting phishing scams involving the IRS at the agency’s website.

(Note: Only IRS.gov is the website of the U.S. government's Internal Revenue Service.)

Source: Federal Trade Commission, Consumer Sentinel Network.

To protect against scams and identity theft:

• Don’t carry your Social Security card or any documents that include your SSN or Individual Taxpayer Identification Number (ITIN). Don’t keep forms containing that information in your car, either.
• Don’t give any business your SSN or ITIN just because someone who claims to represent the company asks. Give such information only when required and when positive who you’re talking to.
• Check your credit report every 12 months. Stay aware of your credit status and learn quickly about any illegal use of your credit or accounts.
• Secure personal information in your home.
• Protect your personal computers with firewalls and anti-spam and anti-virus software, updating security patches and changing passwords for your home Internet accounts.
• Give no personal information over the phone, through the mail or on the Internet unless you initiated the contact and are sure of the recipient.
• Choose a tax preparer carefully. Most preparers provide excellent service a relative few are unscrupulous. The IRS recommends watching for preparers who try to manipulate or change your income figures or makeup deductions to qualify you for tax credits and unusually large refunds.

Tax season brings enough to worry about. Cross identity theft off your list.

When planning for retirement, most Americans think mainly about using tax-advantaged savings vehicles like 401(k) or individual retirement accounts, while failing to consider the triple tax advantages associated with saving for future health care costs using a health savings account, or HSA.

First established under the Medicare Modernization Act of 2003, HSAs are tax-exempt savings plans that must be paired with a high-deductible health insurance plan that meets certain criteria. An HSA owner can make tax-deductible (or pre-tax, if through an employer) contributions to the account, which can in turn be spent tax-free on qualified health care expenses, including on certain health insurance, Medicare, and long-term care insurance premiums. Moreover, any interest or other capital earnings from the account accrue tax-free as well. Thus, unlike any other tax-advantaged savings plan, the HSA offers triple tax benefits: tax-free contributions, tax-free earnings, and tax-free distributions.

Any taxpayer who is not enrolled in another health insurance plan is eligible to open a health savings account. Thus, HSAs are often used by self-employed individuals, small business owners, or those who otherwise lack access to a government or an employer-sponsored plan. Increasingly, however, high-deductible plans coupled with an HSA are being offered to employees as employers seek to shift their health care costs away from the company and onto workers. 

Yet even if the plan is offered through an employer and the company makes contributions to employee HSA accounts, all the funds in an HSA are held by the account owner, not the employer, and any unused balances in a worker’s account go with the employee when he or she leaves the company. The accounts are managed by a trustee or custodian, such as a bank, insurance company, or brokerage firm. Individuals looking to use all or a portion of the funds for retirement should consider opening an HSA with a financial institution that offers mutual funds or other long-term investment options.

While HSAs are similar in some ways to health care flexible spending accounts (FSAs), the maximum amount that can be carried over each year in an FSA is $500, whereas in an HSA there are no limits on the amounts that can be carried over, or on when the funds are used. Thus, HSAs are highly attractive vehicles for saving for medical expenses in retirement, when most people’s health care expenses are highest.

There are, of course, a number of restrictions associated with HSAs. The IRS stipulates that for 2018, the annual deductible of an HSA-compatible health plan cannot be less than $1,350 for self-only coverage or $2,700 for family coverage and that the annual out-of-pocket expenses (deductibles, co-payments, and other amounts; but not premiums) may not exceed $6,650 for self-only coverage or $13,300 for family coverage. The HSA contribution limits in 2018 are $3,450 for an individual and $6,900 for family coverage. Individuals over age 55 can put in an extra $1,000 per year in catch-up contributions.

Contributions to an HSA can be made only up until the account owner becomes eligible for Medicare, usually at age 65. However, an individual can continue to contribute after reaching age 65 if he or she has not yet signed up for Medicare. Conversely, an individual can no longer contribute if he or she qualifies for Medicare before reaching age 65.

Especially for higher-income savers who are generally healthy and do not need to draw down the funds to pay for medical expenses, HSAs are a potentially effective vehicle for saving for retirement. According to a study by the Employee Benefit Research Institute (EBRI), savers who contribute the maximum allowable amount in an HSA over 40 years and take no distributions over that period could accumulate up to $360,000 if the rate of return was 2.5%, $600,000 if the rate of return was 5%, and nearly $1.1 million if the rate of return was 7.5%.

Until the account owner turns 65 or becomes eligible for Medicare, the funds in an HSA can only be used to pay for qualified medical expenses. Withdrawals used for nonqualified medical expenses prior to this point are subject to income taxes and a 20% penalty. However, after age 65 or Medicare eligibility, withdrawals for non-medical expenses are not subject to the 20% penalty, though they are subject to income taxes as they would be from a traditional IRA. Thus, an HSA can be used as a back-up retirement plan—and one that has a number of added advantages, including no minimum distribution requirements and no income limits on contributions.

Another attractive feature of the HSA is that the tax-free distributions do not have to be taken in the year the qualifying expense is incurred. For example, the account owner could keep a list and receipts of the qualified health care expenditures he or she incurred while contributing to an HSA, but which were paid for at the time with after-tax dollars. The individual could then withdraw funds from the account for another reason, while reporting an equal amount of health care expenditures from prior years his or her tax return for the year in which the withdrawal was made.

In addition, an HSA owner between the ages of 59½ and 65 who also has IRA or 401(k) assets can take distributions from these retirement accounts and deposit the funds directly into an HSA. While the individual will owe tax on the distribution, he or she can reduce the tax owed by taking a deduction on the contribution to the HSA. This strategy provides a tax-efficient way to give the owner more funds that can be spent tax-free on medical expenses in retirement.

A SEP May Be The Way To Save On 2017 Taxes

In today’s tight job market, small business owners are in competition to attract and retain top employees with robust employee benefit packages. Many larger businesses find the best approach to meeting their employees’ retirement saving needs is a “qualified” pension or profit-sharing plan. Qualified plans provide an array of features that help employers achieve a range of objectives. However, these plans also involve reporting and recordkeeping requirements, along with administrative expense.

On the other hand, many businesses don’t need every feature offered by a qualified plan. The most appropriate plan for these employers may be one that delivers an attractive benefit with minimal administration and expense. In addition, if employees would like to defer income, the SIMPLE Individual Retirement Account (IRA) may be a cost-effective solution. However, small business owners and sole proprietors may want to consider the Simplified Employee Pension (SEP), an equally effective option.

Is a SEP Right for You?

In 1978, Congress created SEPs as an alternative to traditional retirement plans. Rather than setting up a profit-sharing or money purchase plan with a trust, small business owners can establish a SEP and make contributions directly to a traditional IRA set up for each eligible employee (including themselves). SEPs provide similar advantages to profit-sharing plans, but since the employee controls the IRA, the employer is not responsible for detailed recordkeeping and reporting.

While SEPs are usually most appropriate for small businesses and self-employed individuals, any business (including C corporations,
S corporations, partnerships, and sole proprietorships) can establish a SEP. Unlike a qualified pension or profit-sharing plan, which must be established no later than the last day of the plan year, an employer can establish a SEP plan up until their tax filing deadline, including extensions, which means you may still have time to set one up for 2017!

Establishing a SEP is relatively straightforward. In most cases, the business owner completes an IRS Form 5305-SEP, which is used to set the age and service requirements for plan participation, along with the formula for allocating contributions. Once completed, a copy of this document, in addition to other SEP information, is given to each eligible employee to satisfy legal disclosure requirements.

Participation Requirements

Small business owners may establish age or service eligibility requirements for their plans (in order to retain your employees); however, these eligibility requirements may not be more restrictive than those set forth within IRS form 5305-SEP. The employer may exclude all employees covered by a collective bargaining agreement (if retirement benefits were the subject of good faith bargaining), those under age 21, any employees who have not performed services for the employer in at least three of the previous five years, and employees who have received less than $550 in compensation for the current year.

Contributions to a SEP are allocated to eligible employees in proportion to compensation, with each receiving the same percentage of pay. Employer contributions are always 100% vested. These contributions can be substantial, up to the lesser of 25% of an employee’s compensation (limited
to $270,000 or $54,000 in 2017).

A SEP can provide a substantial tax planning opportunity for the owner. Consider the following example: A CrossFit Affiliate with $250,000 of net income for 2017 that will be passed through to its owner(s) (LLC taxed as S Corp.). Assuming the owner is single with no other income, a $25,000 contribution to a SEP would result in $8,250 of tax savings realized by the owner(s) (Based on 33% marginal tax rate). In other words, a $25,000 contribution towards the owners’ retirement only costs the owner $16,750!

Because contributions are discretionary, employers can vary the amount from year to year, or skip the contribution entirely; however, if the employer makes a contribution in a given year, it must be made for all eligible employees who performed services during the year of the contribution. It is important to note that contributions for self-employed individuals are subject to additional limitations.

If you are a small business owner who values simplicity, wants to retain key employees and get a tax brake for doing, a SEP may be an appropriate choice. For more information, please contact me at ivan@otbfinancialplanning.com. If you found this article helpful, sign up for our newsletter to receive the latest strategies and insights.

A Tax-Deductible Buy-Sell Agreement

One of the critical needs of a small business is to protect against the untimely death of an owner. This is important because the family of the owner may face a large tax bill, and may not have the liquidity to pay the tax. To make matters worse, it may not be desirable for the deceased owner’s family to have a hand in running the business and surviving owner may not have enough cash for a buyout.

This problem can be solved with a well designed buy-sell agreement. Although there are a variety of ways to structure such an arrangement, the two most common approaches are the stock redemption and the cross-purchase plans. Because of leverage and tax efficiency, these plans are often funded with life insurance. Insurance can provide both the liquidity needed by the family to meet its tax obligations and the ready cash for the surviving owners to purchase the interest of the deceased shareholder.

In a stock redemption plan, the business agrees to purchase or retire the stock of a deceased stockholder. Typically, the business purchases life insurance on each stockholder to fund the arrangement. In a cross-purchase plan, the owners agree to buy the stock of a deceased partner. To fund a cross-purchase agreement, each owner buys life insurance on each of the co-owners. In both cases, life insurance guarantees that funds will be available if and when they are needed.

A frequent obstacle to funding a buy-sell arrangement is a lack of sufficient cash to pay for the required insurance. For example, in a 28% tax bracket, it takes $3,472 in pre-tax earnings to support a $2,500 life insurance premium. So, it’s not surprising that many owners ask if there is a way to deduct the cost of the insurance premium. Can this be done?

In fact, there is a way . . . by purchasing life insurance through a profit-sharing plan sponsored by the business. When properly structured, the funding of a cross-purchase plan in this manner has all the advantages of a traditional buy-sell agreement, with the added benefit of income tax leverage to reduce the owners’ out-of-pocket costs.

A Little Background. . .

The Internal Revenue Service (IRS) defines a qualified profit-sharing plan as a plan of deferred compensation. This definition creates flexibility that is not available with a qualified pension plan.

Amounts allocated to the profit-sharing account of a participant may be used to provide incidental life insurance protection for himself or anyone in whom the participant has an insurable interest [Treasury Reg. 1.401-1(b)(1) (ii)]. The IRS has agreed in private letter rulings that this regulation supports the purchase of life insurance on the life of a co-shareholder, to fund a cross-purchase agreement. (See PLRs 8108110 and 8426090.)

Generally, in designing such an arrangement the following conditions should be met:

1. The plan must be a tax-qualified profit-sharing plan.

2. The plan should allow each individual participant to direct a portion of his or her account toward the purchase of life insurance.

3. The plan should provide that participants may purchase life insurance on themselves, or on the life of any individual in whom they have an insurable interest.

4. The purchase of insurance must meet the so-called “incidental death benefit” limitations.

5. Taxable insurance costs (“PS-58 costs”) must be reported by the participant whose account is supporting the cost of the life insurance.

6. If the participant is married, the spouse of the participant should consent in writing to the use of the profit-sharing funds in this manner.

7. At death, the amount at risk under the policy may be distributed immediately to the surviving shareholder. This amount is received free of income tax and may be used to satisfy the buy-sell agreement. The cash value portion of the policy should remain in the profit-sharing plan.

The funding of a cross-purchase agreement through a profit-sharing plan in this manner may work best for small, closely-held businesses with two or three owners. But, it can work in larger businesses as well, and this approach may provide a cost-effective means of purchasing life insurance. This is an important consideration for any business that may not otherwise have the ability to fund the buy-sell plan.

If you need help setting up a buy-sell agreement, choosing appropriate insurance coverage, or help reducing your tax liability exposure, please contact us at (312) 554-5889 or at ivan@otbfinancialplanning.com.

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